It looks like ex-Blazer vs. ex-governor for the fall

Polls show Kitzhaber has it wrapped up, while GOP race still somewhat fluid

By Steve Law

Pamplin Media Group, May 11, 2010, Updated May 12, 2010 (13 Reader comments)

KITZHABER (left), DUDLEY

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Oregon’s fall governor’s race is shaping up as a classic duel between a veteran politician— two-time Gov. John Kitzhaber — and a political newcomer — former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley.

A new poll of likely Oregon voters shows Kitzhaber has what appears to be an insurmountable lead over former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury in the May 18 Democratic primary, while Dudley is maintaining a solid lead over former businessman Allen Alley in the Republican primary.

The May 8-10 poll by Portland’s Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. also shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for state treasurer, with former Multnomah County Chair Ted Wheeler maintaining a modest lead over State Sen. Rick Metsger, D-Welches. Half the voters were undecided in that race.

The poll was conducted for the Portland Tribune, Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox 12 television station. The poll has margin of error of 5.6 percent, which means the results could be off by that amount in either direction.

Dudley leads Alley by a 33 percent to 23 percent among likely Republican voters. Former legislator John Lim trails with 8 percent and initiative activist Bill Sizemore has 6 percent.

“I don’t think this race is over, but I think the window is starting to shut” for Alley, says Tim Hibbitts, Oregon’s leading independent pollster.

As undecided voters commit to one or the other candidate, Alley is not gaining ground on Dudley, Hibbitts observes. “Alley still has a chance but, frankly, it’s a pretty slim chance at this point.”

Latest campaign finance reports filed with the Oregon Elections Division show Dudley has raised $1.6 million for the race, and has about $10,000 cash on hand. Alley has raised about $800,000 but his campaign treasury has a deficit of more than $300,000, much of it from from loans his campaign is carrying.

The Democratic primary between Kitzhaber and his longtime pal Bradbury is “over,” Hibbitts says.

Kitzhaber leads 53 percent to 23 percent, a margin consistent with other polls. Bradbury has failed to gain any ground during the campaign, Hibbitts says. Kitzhaber also has a commanding edge in campaign fundraising. He’s raised nearly $1.4 million and has a healthy $340,000 cash on hand.

Bradbury has raised less than $500,000 for the primary and has only $15,000 cash on hand.

“There’s no amount of money that’s going to save him,” Hibbitts says of Bradbury’s flagging campaign.

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